Despite a minor recovery this week, Bitcoin’s price continues to struggle well below $90,000. The crypto asset has been under tremendous market stress as traders remained cautious due to economic uncertainties.
However, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes that Bitcoin could surge to $250,000 by the end of 2025.
Bitcoin’s Push to $250,000
In his latest blog post, Hayes made a bold prediction while analysing a crucial shift in US monetary policy, where he believes the Federal Reserve will eventually cave to pressure and resume quantitative easing (QE) due to political and economic pressures. He argued that Bitcoin’s price will rise dramatically as the Fed reintroduces liquidity into the system, driven by its need to support the US economy.
Hayes specifically pointed to the Federal Reserve’s recent shift in stance regarding the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) and the overall balance sheet policy. He predicts that the central bank will grant an exemption for banks on the SLR, which will effectively allow them to hold more Treasury bonds without facing stricter capital requirements.
This, according to Hayes, will act as a form of Treasury QE, which will flood the market with liquidity.
The former CEO of BitMEX went on to draw on comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who hinted at the possibility of stopping the roll-off of assets from the Fed’s balance sheet, as well as a recent statement from Bessent about the impact of removing the SLR, which could lower treasury bill yields and boost liquidity by tens of billions of dollars.
Hayes’s analysis also addresses the potential inflationary impacts of proposed tariffs. While Powell has maintained that any tariff-induced inflation would be “transitory,” he argued that the Fed’s commitment to easing will remain firm, even if inflation spikes.
This belief in “transitory” inflation allows the central bank to continue its policies of monetary expansion without fear of long-term consequences, making it less concerned about the inflationary effects of tariffs on goods or services.
Bitcoin: “Anti-Establishment” Asset?
Further elaborating on the liquidity dynamics, the 40-year-old American entrepreneur noted that the US Treasury has already reduced its pace of quantitative tightening (QT) from $25 billion per month to just $5 billion post-April 1, which has created an annualized liquidity boost of $240 billion. He predicts this number could rise to $420 billion as the year progresses, which could essentially mean a shift toward more aggressive easing.
For Hayes, these conditions mirror those of the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC), where gold and other commodities outperformed traditional assets as the Fed’s liquidity injections began. While Bitcoin did not exist during the GFC, he believes it now serves as the “anti-establishment” asset, set to benefit from the same liquidity-driven tailwinds that propelled gold during the last crisis.
Hayes also doubled down on his $250,000 Bitcoin prediction while arguing that the Fed’s eventual return to QE will drive the cryptocurrency higher, as it thrives in environments of fiat currency debasement. He believes Bitcoin’s technology and its positioning as a store of value make it the ideal asset to capitalize on the flood of liquidity that he expects to come.
Despite acknowledging market risks, Hayes remains confident that Bitcoin’s value will soar as the Fed’s monetary policies align with his outlook for a higher price in the coming months.
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